Kalshi
“Can Kalshi become the dominant regulated prediction-market exchange by leveraging its CFTC DCM designation to capture real-money event-contract trading that was previously illegal or offshore?”
Founded in 2020, Kalshi spent its early years obtaining CFTC regulatory designation as a Designated Contract Market — a multi-year regulatory fight that gave it a durable moat as the only federally regulated prediction market exchange in the US. Growth was modest until the 2024 US election cycle, when event-contract volumes exploded and the app topped the App Store, forcing Kalshi to secure emergency VC loans to fund cash reserves. This breakout validated the prediction-market asset class and enabled Kalshi to raise successive mega-rounds in 2025–2026 totaling over $1.5B, shifting from a niche curiosity to a mainstream financial platform at an $11B valuation.